The first article in this series, “Finding an Edge in Sports Betting,” discussed the resources needed to become a successful gambler; however, while this is the most crucial factor if you want to beat the bookies or your fellow betting exchange players, it is not the only one. Many people who discover that edge still fail to turn it into regular profits, and perhaps the lack of betting discipline is to blame. Check out the Best info about 토토사이트.
When I say “betting discipline,” I mean the self-control to sit out the unavoidable losing streaks and play only when you’re confident in your ability to win. Fun wagers, also known as interest bets, are the undoing of many gamblers who would otherwise make a profit. Any wager you make that doesn’t satisfy your standard “value bet” criteria is considered a “fun bet.”
You might place a side bet on Monday night football because it’s on TV, even if you don’t particularly care about the game, or you might wager on a race at Wolverhampton while waiting for your primary bet to run at Newmarket. Losses from these wagers can completely wipe out gains from your primary, high-stakes predictions. Those where you know you can compete effectively.
You could have gained an advantage by gambling in a casino if, on the hour, the dealers threw a coin and paid out 11 to 10 to anyone who bet on heads as part of a special promotion. If you consistently bet on heads, you will eventually earn money from this deal, assuming Del Boy didn’t supply the coin. Let’s pretend this deal only allowed a $100 wager per customer.
You would hope to win $5 on each wager ((50% of (100*2.1) – $100)). If you gamble for six hours a day, entering the casino on the hour, you will average a daily profit of $30. You’re using your unique knowledge to your advantage and turning a tidy profit. However, if you spend the day in the casino, you can play blackjack while waiting for your hourly wager.
Assuming you play 60 hands per hour and wager $10 per hand, you can expect to lose $12 per hour at this casino if the house edge is 2%. Waiting an hour to place your “value bet” causes you to make many smaller wagers, which more than cancel out any gains from the coin-flip stake.
While the scenario above likely isn’t how most gamblers spend their time, many still approach casinos similarly daily. They may visit their local bookies or observe the action on television, but their standard operating procedure for most races will be to back a horse.
Like in a casino, most gamblers lack the patience to wait for the wagers where they believe they have an advantage. It’s acceptable to wager on every race, provided you do so with a clear understanding of the value of your wager. All your hard work coming up with the value choices will be for naught if you don’t exercise discipline and stick to your four or five solid bets for the day.
If I determine that I will lay at 2.0 on Betfair, regardless of whether my odds of 2.26 have changed to reflect new information, I will not apply at any higher than 2.0. People might assume it’s close enough if the horse is 2.02, but it’s not. If you will disregard the lowest back price or the maximum lay price, why have them? If you find 2.02 to be sufficiently near, 2.04 and 2.06 are also in the ballpark.
When do you say enough is enough? If your true odds were correct, you would lose after paying the fee and laying the horse at your true odds price. Even if you’re right about the likelihood of an event, you might still lose money in the long run if you give in to the urge to place a bet, even though the odds aren’t in your favor.
If you’re betting for fun, that’s fine; there are worse ways to spend your money. However, if you’re serious about making a profit over the long term, you need the self-control to avoid placing wagers that don’t reach your price standards. You should always get the best price, so it’s worth it to create as many accounts as possible and take advantage of bookies’ free bet offers, whether you only bet when your price criteria are met or bet for fun.
Some gamblers will only wager on events in which they have a significant advantage; At the same time, this strategy may yield positive results in the long run; it is vulnerable to a losing streak that could put them out of business. Sure, losing streaks will cut into your bottom line, but that doesn’t mean you can’t turn a profit if you’re smart about how you deal with them.
Even if you make money over the long run, you will inevitably lose streaks in the short term; trust me, I know. Your future success greatly depends on how you handle these types of setbacks. Perhaps I shouldn’t have said, “React to them,” because the optimal course of action is not to react. More often than not, a losing run will fall within an entirely expected sequence of results, so if a losing run is the only reason you need to change your methods or leads you to chase your losses, you are on the slippery slope to a career change.
Did you know that if you place 40 identical bets, you will win 14 or fewer times, or 95 percent of the time, if your anticipated strike rate for the series is 50 percent? In other words, if you place 800 such wagers and win 400 times, there will typically be one 40-wager sequence in which you win only 14 times. If you look at this sequence of bets in isolation, you’ll notice that you’re losing money by backing at 11/10 and might draw the wrong conclusion that your method is flawed. Specific statistical analyses are employed to avoid jumping to conclusions based on small sample size.
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